Will UK GDP grow by more than 0.4% in Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun)?

Market resolves to YES if the Office for National Statistics first estimate of UK quarterly GDP growth for Q2 2026 (April to June), published in the GDP first quarterly estimate bulletin, is strictly greater than 0.4%. UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 2026, beating BoE and OBR forecasts. A reading of exactly 0.4% resolves NO. Resolution uses the headline quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in the ONS first estimate (typically published in August). Source: ONS GDP first quarterly estimate (ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp).