Will the October Budget raise income tax, VAT or employee NI?

Market resolves to YES if Chancellor John Healey's Budget on 28 October 2026 announces an increase in at least one of: the basic rate of income tax, the standard rate of VAT, or the main employee Class 1 National Insurance contribution rate. Changes to thresholds, allowances, employer NI, or other taxes alone resolve NO. Resolution is based on the official Budget document and oral statement. Source: gov.uk / HM Treasury Budget 2026.