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Will UK CPI inflation for May 2026 come in below 3.0% on June 17?

Market resolves to YES if the Office for National Statistics CPI 12-month rate for May 2026, published in the ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin on 17 June 2026, is strictly below 3.0%. UK CPI was 2.8% in April 2026 (down from 3.3% in March) but independent forecasters expect inflation to rise toward 3.5% by Q4 amid higher energy costs. A reading of exactly 3.0% resolves NO. Resolution uses the headline CPI figure published at 7am. Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin (ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices).